The retail sales report is due on Tuesday, just one day ahead of the FOMC decision. The consensus for the headline right now is +0.1% but they expect it to be soft, including a 'control group' reading at 0%.
"Spending on home improvement, groceries, and general merchandise was particularly soft in May," BofA noted.
Compared to June 2024, all four big ticket spending expectations we track have declined y/y, consistent with our observations in May. Plans to buy New Appliance declined the most y/y, dropping from 35% LY to 31% this month. Plans to buy a New Home declined modestly from 24% LY to 22% this year but upticked sequentially.
Is the economy finally starting to slow?
h/t @neilksethi
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