When all the hockey has been played and a champion has been crowned, the NHL quickly turns its attention to the off-season, when rosters are renovated, trades abound, and free agency opens doors to new opportunities.
For the past five years, the off-season was more restricted than usual, in that a relatively flat salary cap pinched more teams every summer and contract comparables remained relatively static. Contending teams, and even those trying to challenge the best, had a hard time finding room to maneuver.
But now, free from the constraints of pandemic economics, everything is about to change. The way we compare player contracts will shift wildly starting this summer and into the foreseeable future, with the upper limit anticipated to expand to $113.5 million by the 2027-28 season. A $5 million deal today will not be equivalent to a $5 million deal signed three years from now. And the highest-paid player today will surely be surpassed a few times in the coming years.
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Most of that reshaping of the contract landscape will happen either through unrestricted free agency or by teams re-signing their own players to extensions. But there’s another avenue through which contracts could expand and change the market…
Offer sheets.
Now, the RFA offer sheet has been touted many times as a path to team improvement, and some previous off-seasons have been perceived to have conditions that were “just right” for them to be thrown around. More often than not, those kinds of dramatic moves don’t come to pass.
That’s not to say the offer sheet never happens. In fact, the success brought from two of them last summer could be even more incentive for some team(s) to make the bold play in 2025.
The St. Louis Blues scooped both Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg from the Edmonton Oilers last summer in two separate offer sheets that were signed at the same time. In a cap pinch after spending dollars on UFAs, Edmonton chose to let them go, and both players went on to have career seasons with the Blues.
“With the outcome of last summer’s offer sheets… as well as the two players played in St. Louis, it’s certainly going to be a talking point around the NHL, not only by media, but also by front offices,” Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon said.
Added Montreal president Jeff Gorton: “I think because around the league if there’s some success of people using them, it will be like a trend. I think you’ll see teams study it and think about that avenue a little bit more.”
There is a flip side to this coin, however.
While teams will have more money to use on offer sheets and challenge rivals this summer, more teams also have money to match an offer sheet with.
“The circumstances have to be there for an offer sheet to work,” Capitals GM Craig Patrick said.
What we know now are the compensation levels for teams that decide not to match any offer sheet their players sign. Those are in the table below.
OFFER SHEET AAV
COMPENSATION
$1,544,424 or less
None
Over $1,544,424 to $2,340,037
Third-round pick
Over $2,340,037 to $4,680,076
Second-round pick
Over $4,680,076 to $7,020,113
First- and third-round picks
Over $7,020,113 to $9,360,153
First-, second-, and third-round picks
Over $9,360,153 to $11,700,192
Two firsts, one second and one third
Over $11,700,192
Four first-round picks
It’s important to remember that teams must use their own draft picks as compensation and not ones acquired from elsewhere. So, if you owe a second-round pick in compensation for an offer sheet, you must already have your own second-round pick to cover it. Last summer, the Blues made a pick swap trade with Pittsburgh to reacquire their own 2025 second-round pick, which allowed them to put in the offer sheets to both Broberg and Holloway.
Also, remember that since players don’t become free agents (RFA or UFA) until July 1, the compensation picks we’re talking about for offer sheets this summer are for the 2026 NHL Draft.
That in itself adds another layer of intrigue. Right now, the 2026 draft is regarded as a deeper class than 2025 and topped by Gavin McKenna, who torched the WHL with 41 goals and 129 points in 56 regular-season games this season, represented Team Canada at the WJC, then posted 38 points in 16 playoff games. How many teams would be open to risking an unprotected 2026 first-rounder with that sort of prize on the line?
There are some big-time offer sheet candidates out there. Toronto’s Matthew Knies, for example, is a uniquely talented player who fell just shy of 30 goals and had an excellent post-season. There may be a team willing to invest a lot in him early. Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard becomes an RFA at the same time Connor McDavid is eligible to sign an extension, so the Oilers are having to plan for a lot of money to go towards those two. Buffalo’s JJ Peterka had a great breakout season and could be an offer sheet candidate, though Buffalo has plenty of cap space.
But because players like those are key young pieces of a core, an offer sheet would most likely be matched with the cap implications figured out later (you can go over the cap by 10 per cent in the off-season). So we’re attempting to look beyond the obvious big names and focus on players a little further down the depth chart who could be intriguing offer sheet candidates, a la Broberg and Holloway last summer.
OFFER SHEET TARGETS
One final point of clarification before we get into it: not all RFAs are eligible to receive an offer sheet. From PuckPedia:
Only players classified as restricted free agents (RFAs) can sign offer sheets. This excludes “10.2(c)” players, which are players who have completed their Entry-Level Contracts (ELCs) without meeting the professional-experience requirements tied to their signing age.
So, for example, New Jersey Devils defenceman Luke Hughes is not eligible for an offer sheet, even though he’s a restricted free agent.
Now to those who are…
Joel Hofer, St. Louis Blues
Over the past two seasons, 47 goalies have played in at least 60 NHL games, and Hofer’s .909 save percentage is tied for eighth-best with Logan Thompson and Igor Shesterkin. He is not a fully developed, no-doubt NHL No. 1 yet (Hofer ranked 76th out of 103 goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected this season), but the soon-to-be 25-year old might be an interesting investment for a team who believes he can get there, or be ready for more of a workload right away. St. Louis has $5.03 million in current cap space (fourth-least in the league), and you could offer Hofer around $4.6 million and only owe a second-round pick in compensation. It’s not a great UFA market for goalies this summer, so this may be the route a team looks to go for an upgrade in net.
Mavrik Bourque, Dallas Stars
In his third pro season, and first in the NHL, Bourque was somewhat buried in a deep and talented group of Dallas forwards. Averaging 12:41 of ice time per game, Bourque managed 11 goals and 25 points this season, but his history suggests the potential for much more to be on the way. Bourque was a first-round pick in 2020, excelled in major junior, led the AHL in scoring in 2023-24 and is a playmaking forward who could play centre and have top-six upside. Dallas only has $4.96 million in off-season cap space, so it wouldn’t take much for an offering team to make the Stars uncomfortable and deliver an offer sheet that only demands a second-round pick in compensation.
Will Cuylle, New York Rangers
The Rangers RFA who is mostly in focus is defenceman K’Andre Miller, who has plenty of upside but is coming off a down season. The Rangers have just $8.42 million in cap space and want to bring back a different roster, which is why players like Chris Kreider are popping up as trade candidates. Heck, maybe Miller becomes one of those, too. But don’t overlook Will Cuylle, a 23-year-old who more than doubled his point total year over year and led the Rangers in hits with 301. When our scout Jason Bukala took a deep dive into how important Knies is to the Maple Leafs due to his unique skill set for a player his age, Cuylle was his closest comparable.
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Nic Hague, Vegas Golden Knights
Hague appeared on Nick Kypreos’ first off-season trade board because he’s looking for a big-money extension, and the Golden Knights have already invested a lot in their back end. An RFA this summer, but eligible for unrestricted free agent status just one year from now, Hague is someone who could push an offer sheet into at least the $4,680,076 to $7,020,113 range, which demands a first- and third-round pick for compensation.
Hague was mostly a bottom-pair defender in Vegas, averaging just over 15 minutes per game in even-strength ice time. He is big, he is physical, he can play on the penalty-kill, and he can certainly seek out more ice time in someone’s top four. If Hague is not traded or signed by July 1, it could get interesting on the offer sheet front as the compensation may be less than the ask in a player trade. The Golden Knights have $9.62 million in cap space with nine forwards, seven defencemen and two goalies on the roster.
Dimitri Voronkov, Columbus Blue Jackets
This situation is different than others already mentioned because Columbus has over $40 million in cap space, the second-most in the league, so they won’t feel the pressure of the salary cap on an offer sheet. But could someone make an aggressive offer that’s uncomfortable for Columbus to match? A year from now, the Blue Jackets will be able to work on an extension with Kirill Marchenko, who will have one more RFA year before he’s UFA eligible, so that could be a sizeable contract. Voronkov found great chemistry playing with Marchenko — when the duo were together at 5-on-5 this season, they outscored the competition 51-22 — and he was one of the most improved players on the roster. An offer sheet could come Voronkov’s way, but for Columbus to not match it would have to be at a number that goes above and beyond.
Jack Quinn, Buffalo Sabres
GM Kevyn Adams has a lot to consider on his stalled roster this summer, and now, a former NHL GM, Jarmo Kekalainen, has joined the front office as an advisor. With the pressure on more than ever to return with a more competitive roster, Adams has a lot of RFA contracts to sift through. Bowen Byram is due a hefty raise and could be a trade candidate. Ryan McLeod is another RFA coming off a breakout campaign on offence. Peterka is prominent in trade rumours and perhaps their most notable RFA who could receive the biggest offer sheet (if one is coming) after a 68-point season.
Then there’s Jack Quinn, who missed most of the 2023-24 campaign with an Achilles injury but returned to narrowly set new career highs in goals, assists and points in 2024-25. The eighth overall pick from 2020, Quinn is somewhat flying under the radar in Buffalo’s long to-do list and though the Sabres have $23.21 million in cap space, a lot of that could be used up in short order. Remember, the Blues didn’t sign Holloway and Broberg to offer sheets until mid-August last summer, after the Oilers had done their spending in free agency and addressed roster needs. If the Sabres conduct other business first and let Quinn linger, he could become a similar type of target.
Jack McBain, Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth promise to be one of the more interesting teams this off-season. They have cap space ($20.3 million), they have lots of draft picks (17 in the next two years) and have picked so many prospects in recent drafts already that they may feel challenged to stay under the reserve list limit of 90 or pro contract limit of 50 in the next couple of years. For that reason, they are an excellent candidate to trade off some of their prospects for established NHL players this summer in an effort to become a team that can compete for a playoff spot.
If the Mammoth get active in free agency or trade, the large amount of cap room they have today will quickly be depleted. They don’t have too many of their own players in pressing need of a contract extension, but with all this other potential business floating around, RFA Jack McBain could become an offer sheet candidate in July who won’t break someone’s bank. If the main takeaway some GMs around the league have from another Florida Panthers playoff run is to go out of their way to add toughness, McBain could be one to target. The 25-year-old led the Mammoth in hits this past season, and though he’s a bottom-six player at even strength, McBain played a role on Utah’s penalty kill.
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