But oceanographers are increasingly concerned that no one is listening. “We’ve been saying the same message for the last two decades,” says Professor Helen Findlay, one of the lead researchers in a new study by the UK’s Plymouth Marine Laboratory. “I’m not surprised by the results of the study. The surprise is that we’re still on this same track. We’ve reached a point now where we’re going to start seeing the real impacts pretty soon.”
Professor Helen Findlay, one of the lead researchers in a new study by Plymouth Marine Laboratory, left, in the lab (Photo: Dan Jones/Plymouth Marine Laboratory)
Findlay’s new study has found that Earth reached the natural “boundary” of ocean acidity in 2020. This boundary is the safe pH limit that sea life can thrive in. “We measure the actual carbon dioxide levels going into the ocean, as it’s the carbon dioxide that reacts with seawater to form a weak acid,” she says. “We then measure the pH. From that, we can see how the chemistry is changing. The ocean’s pH is naturally slightly alkaline. Two decades ago, we were at 8.1 on the pH scale. Now we’re around about 8.05.”
With this dual effect, these oceans are seeing much quicker acidification and with it, increasing shellfish mortality rates. In Canada‘s Amundsen Gulf, over 85 per cent of sampled sea butterflies showed severe shell dissolution. Recent studies in the Southern Ocean also found mortality rates in shellfish of up to 39 per cent.
By 2030, Findlay predicts the UK’s oceans will meet the same fate. This will have dire consequences for the already over-fished wild salmon and cod, which will struggle to feed on the dwindling crustaceans. With fewer salmon in our seas, the price of this much-loved fish will only increase.
If they fail to adapt, salmon and cod could also be impacted by increasing sealife mortality. “We’re gonna end up in a lot more trouble if we don’t get that message out,” says Findlay.
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In 2018, scientists predicted that the annual damages from flooding would double if we lost our coral reefs, causing £3bn worth of damage every year. Indonesia, the Philippines and Cuba would be most impacted by this flooding. “Livelihoods in developing nations and small island states are highly dependent on marine ecosystems,” says Findlay. “Their economies will be significantly impacted, as well as tourism to those countries.”
But after decades of sounding the alarm, researchers feel they are talking to a brick wall. Some are looking for more immediate solutions. “One mitigation could be marine carbon dioxide removal, so something like alkalinity enhancement, where you are adding alkaline minerals back into the ocean. Those researchers are looking at how feasible it would be to crush minerals and alkaline solutions, but that would mean huge ocean-scale additions every year for the next 100 years. “
It is still not clear whether these interventions will be effective, or even affordable, for many countries. But what is sure is that shellfish such as oysters and mussels will be some of the first to face dwindling numbers. “We’ve now got a lot more data and a lot more evidence to show what we have known has been happening for a long time,” says Findlay. “A lot of that uncertainty is gone.”
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