Why RBC sees limited euro upside from here ...Middle East

Key Points:

RBC leaves its end-Q2 EUR/USD target unchanged at 1.14 and sees only a modest rise to 1.15 by end-Q3.

Drivers Behind the YTD Rally:

March fiscal news out of Germany

A sharp swing in market positioning, from net short to net long EUR/USD, supported by options demand

RBC assumes a continuation of the current tariff status quo, though acknowledges this is a big assumption.

Balanced Central Bank Outlook:

This limits relative rate divergence as a driver of further EUR strength.

European ETF inflows have stalled after an initial surge.

Conclusion:

RBC tempers expectations for EUR/USD, citing fading catalysts, neutral macro data, and policy stability on both sides of the Atlantic. While the bullish case remains broadly intact, a consolidative range is more likely than a breakout in the next 1–3 months.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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