Key Points:
RBC leaves its end-Q2 EUR/USD target unchanged at 1.14 and sees only a modest rise to 1.15 by end-Q3.
Drivers Behind the YTD Rally:
March fiscal news out of Germany
A sharp swing in market positioning, from net short to net long EUR/USD, supported by options demand
RBC assumes a continuation of the current tariff status quo, though acknowledges this is a big assumption.
Balanced Central Bank Outlook:
This limits relative rate divergence as a driver of further EUR strength.
European ETF inflows have stalled after an initial surge.
Conclusion:
RBC tempers expectations for EUR/USD, citing fading catalysts, neutral macro data, and policy stability on both sides of the Atlantic. While the bullish case remains broadly intact, a consolidative range is more likely than a breakout in the next 1–3 months.
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