BofA and Morgan Stanley expectations for the May US CPI report on Wednesday ...Middle East

Key Points:

Headline CPI: +0.2% m/m

Preliminary core PCE estimate: +0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y

Core CPI: +0.26% m/m, 2.9% y/y

Drivers of the Print:

Seasonal softness in autos and contained services inflation capped core gains

Conclusion:

Both banks see a restrained inflation print for May, but with core inflation still too sticky to justify early Fed cuts. A 0.2–0.26% core reading would confirm that while disinflation is progressing, it remains gradual, keeping rate cut expectations in check for now.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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