ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Oil up despite OPEC+ output hike. USD lower, ...Middle East

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Oil prices opened higher on Monday, even after OPEC+ confirmed it would raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in July — matching increases from May and June. This marks the third consecutive monthly output hike as the cartel continues its push to regain market share and exert discipline on over-producing members.

Yen strengthens as Bank of Japan boosts JGB loss provisions

The decision marks a significant step by the central bank, widely interpreted as preparation for a future of higher interest rates. With markets still debating the pace and scale of BoJ policy normalisation, this concrete adjustment bolstered confidence in yen assets and drove demand for the currency throughout the session.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signalled openness to rate cuts later this year, speaking at an event in South Korea. Waller said that recent tariff-driven inflation pressures linked to President Trump’s trade policies are unlikely to be lasting, and therefore should not overly influence monetary policy decisions in the near term.

Asian factories feel the pinch as tariffs, Chinese oversupply weigh

Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for May edged up slightly to 49.4, the softest contraction of the year. While declines in new orders and output moderated, firms remained cautious — trimming purchases and inventory levels. Encouragingly, business confidence improved from April’s lows, leading to the fastest rise in employment in over a year as firms tentatively looked ahead to a demand recovery.

China's Ministry of Commerce on Monday rejected U.S. President Trump’s accusations that Beijing had violated the Geneva trade consensus, calling the claims “groundless” and promising to defend its interests with “forceful measures.” The response followed Trump’s Friday remarks that China had failed to honour commitments to roll back tariffs.

Polish election

In news as I post, Polish nationalist Nawrocki wins presidential election. This sets up a right-wing presidency again in Poland, in contrast to Musk's recent win as PM on a more moderate, pro-Europe, pro-EU platform. Its not a positive, at the margin, for the euro.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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