Can Eddie Howe’s side secure their top-five place in the Premier League? We look ahead to Sunday’s final-day clash with our Newcastle United vs Everton prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Everton Stats: The Key Insights
Newcastle United overcame Everton in a dominant 67.5% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Since Everton won their first Premier League game under David Moyes this season on 19 January, only four teams have picked up more points than the Toffees (28). Newcastle have won their final league game in eight of the last 10 seasons (D1 L1).Newcastle United need a victory over Everton on the final day of the Premier League season to confirm qualification for the UEFA Champions League.
Eddie Howe’s side are fourth in the table, but level on points with Chelsea and Aston Villa in fifth and sixth respectively, heading into Sunday’s season finale at St. James’ Park. Nottingham Forest are another point back, and host Chelsea in a decisive fixture in the top-five battle.
The equation is simple for the Magpies, with a win guaranteeing Champions League football next season for the second time in three campaigns, barring a miraculous goal difference swing from Villa.
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5 hours ago David SegarHaving finished fourth in 2022-23, Howe could also become the fifth Englishman to have two or more top-four finishes in the Premier League. Kevin Keegan (1993-94, 1995-96), Roy Evans (4, 1994-95 – 1997-98), Bobby Robson (2001-02, 2002-03) and Harry Redknapp (2009-10, 2011-12) are the others.
The hosts will be confident of getting over the line, given Newcastle have won their last six home league matches. They last won seven in a row between September and December 2023, while the Magpies are looking to win more than 12 overall on their own turf in one campaign for the first time since 2002-03 (15).
To further the home optimism of Champions League football next term, Newcastle have won their final league game in eight of the last 10 seasons (D1 L1). The exceptions came in a 3-1 loss against Liverpool (2019-20) and a 1-1 draw with Chelsea (2022-23).
In stark contrast, Everton have only won their final league game in one of the last eight seasons (D1 L6), beating Bournemouth 1-0 in 2022-23.
However, a victory on Sunday for David Moyes’ side would see Everton end a league season on a run of three consecutive wins for the first time since the 1988-89 campaign. That would be keeping in line with the remarkable upturn in form since the Scotsman’s return.
Since Everton won their first Premier League game under Moyes this season, beating Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 on 19 January at Goodison Park, only four teams have picked up more points than the Toffees (28).
Central to that turnaround has been Iliman Ndiaye, who is averaging a goal every 141 minutes under Moyes, compared to one every 506 minutes under his predecessor Sean Dyche in the competition.
Ndiaye scored twice in the 2-0 win over Southampton last weekend, stealing the show on an emotional farewell to Goodison Park for the club’s men’s team. That double means he has scored six goals in his last 10 Premier League starts for Everton.
In terms of team news, Orel Mangala, Séamus Coleman, James Tarkowski and Jesper Lindstrøm are long-term absentees for Everton, while Jarrad Branthwaite’s hamstring issue will be assessed after he limped off against Southampton.
Lewis Hall, Joelinton and Kieran Trippier are all out for Howe’s side, who will hope Alexander Isak can recover from a groin injury that ruled him out Newcastle’s 1-0 defeat at Arsenal last time out.
Trippier’s absence has seen Howe switch to a back three in recent weeks, with Jacob Murphy operating as a makeshift wing-back. Murphy has assisted 12 Premier League goals this season, with only Andrew Cole in 1993-94 (13) and Nolberto Solano in 1999-00 (15) assisting more in a campaign for Newcastle in the competition.
Newcastle vs Everton Head-to-Head
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last four home Premier League games against Everton (W3 D1), having previously lost six of nine such clashes (W3) between 2011 and 2019.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s late penalty cancelled out Isak’s early opener in this exact fixture last season, while the pair shared a goalless draw at Goodison Park this campaign.
In that draw, Anthony Gordon missed a first-half penalty against his former side after Abdoulaye Doucouré had a goal ruled out by the VAR for offside.
That was Everton’s 18th clean sheet against Newcastle in the Premier League. They’ve only managed more against West Ham (23) and Liverpool (21) in the competition’s history.
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
Newcastle triumphed in a convincing 67.5% of 10,000 pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Everton only recorded victory in 14.7% of the same data-led sims, with the draw slightly more probable, happening in 17.8%.
The Magpies are favourites to finish fourth in Opta’s end-of-season predictions (53.5%), with a top-five finish ranked at a strong 82.7%.
Newcastle vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Everton Prediction Opta Analyst.
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