We saw a strong rebound though on April 9 as Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and the market expected more de-escalation and started to price out the global slowdown. The delay in reaching the trade deals and fresh positive supply news eventually weighed on the sentiment and prices rolled over once again.
Global ocean container bookings have seen a significant decline since the tariffs announcement with bookings from China to US being down 60%. If Trump eases tariffs, we could experience a covid-like bullwhip effect where all those cancelled orders get rebooked creating a huge surge.
Michael Steinhardt, a trading legend, once said that ideally you should be able to tell, in two minutes, four things:
the ideathe consensus viewthe variant perceptionthe trigger eventThe trigger event, in my opinion, could be the details of the first trade deal. Markets will derive future expectations from that first deal. I think an average tariff rate of 10% or lower (the lower the better), would be the catalyst for a rally in crude oil prices. The idea would be invalidated in case we get a higher rate of course.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.Hence then, the article about a non consensus trading opportunity as the selloff in crude oil gathers attention was published today ( ) and is available on forex live ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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