Little progress on trade negotiations keeps the market betting on more aggressive easing ...Middle East

Rate cuts by year-end

Fed: 90 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 66 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 87 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 46 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 127 bps (78% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 84 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 28 bps (86% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

That's what the market has been focused on for weeks, and it will continue to do so. The first trade deal will be an important catalyst.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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