Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Mar: Putin/Trump ceasefire on energy/infrastructure ...Middle East

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US stocks cannot get out of the red todayNew Zealand consumer confidence weakened to 89.2 in Q1 2025, from 97.5 in Q4 2024Zelensky: Talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about resultsTrump: Agreed to immediate ceasefire on energy and infrastructureOntario Premier: US plans to introduce across-the-board tariffs on April 2White House: Putin backed 'energy and infrastructure ceasefire':Putin proposed hockey games between the USA and Russia. Trump backed the ideaKremlin: Putin backs idea not to hit energy facilities for 30 daysJensen Huang: The ability to understand the physical world, will enable roboticsUS treasury sells $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.632%European indices are closing higher after Germany passes fiscal reform measuresPutins Envoy: Under Pres. Putin and Pres. Trump, the world has become a much safer placeGold trades to a new all time highBundstag vote is underway... and it passesAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 -1.8 versus -2.1 previouslyA lot is going on technically in the USDCHF. I will talk about it in this video.April 2 tariffs will 'take into account' VAT taxes as tariffs - WSJUS Feb industrial production +0.7% vs +0.2% expectedFitch: White House has started a global trade war that will reduce US and world growthUS February import prices +0.4% vs -0.1% expectedCanada February CPI +2.6% y/y vs +2.2% expectedUS February housing starts 1.501M vs 1.380M estimate.Forexlive European FX news wrap: German ZEW outlook jumps to a new cycle highUS Treasury Secretary Bessent: All options are available on China investmentsRussia's Novak: Global oil market is balanced nowGermany March ZEW survey current conditions -87.6 vs -80.5 expected

Both leaders agreed to stay in contact and expressed mutual interest in normalizing relations, emphasizing their shared responsibility for global security. They also agreed to swap 175 prisoners of war (POWs) on each side, with Russia set to hand over 23 gravely injured Ukrainian servicemen.

While these discussions reaffirm Putin’s stated commitment to a peaceful resolution, they do not appear to signal a major ceasefire breakthrough.

The news from the phone conversation was nevertheless not enough to reverse what was a down day in the US stock market. The major indices in the US gapped lower at the open and could not get out of the negative territory for the entire day. Not helping the tone was a report in the Wall Street Journal that US was looking two bucket nations for tariffs and that tariffs would take into account VAT as a tariff (even though VAT is charged on all products whether produced domestically or internationally).

Dow industrial average is closing down -260.32 points or -0.62% at 41581.31. The index was down -54.38 points at session highs and -426.20 at session lowsS&P is closing down -60.46 points or -1.07% at 5614.66. At session highs today, the price was down -20.59 points and at session lows the price was down -77.36 pointsNasdaq is closing down -304.55 points or -1.71% at 17504.12. At session highs today, the price was down -125.74 points and at session lows the price was down -376.99.

Shares in Europe did not see the selling that the US did after Germany Bundestag passed Chancellor Merz’s fiscal reform with the final tally showing 513 in favor and 207 against. The vote needed 489 votes to pass constitutional reform.

The final numbers in Europe showed:

German DAX, +0.98%France's CAC +0.50%UK's FTSE 100 +0.29%Spain's Ibex, +1.58%Italy's FTSE MIB +1.31%

Gold traded to a new record high of $3038.31. It is trading at $3034.22 up $33.15 or 1.11%.

Fundamentally, US housing starts showed a bigger than expected in lies rate 1.501 million versus 1.38 million estimate. The numbers may have been influenced by usually harsh weather in January leading to a rebound in February.

Industrial production was higher and 0.7% versus 0.2%

Finally in the forex:

EURUSD is closing higher on the day and near the high of a swing area between 1.0936 and 1.0954. The move higher was not without volatile down and up price action. The current price is trading at 1.0944. The sellers have put the lid on the pair within this area today. Can they keep the selling pressure in the new trading day. A break above would target 1.1000 to 1.1014.GBPUSD is also higher after a volatile up and down trading day. The pair is moving away from its 61.8% retracement of the move down from the September 2024 high at 1.2922. Staying above that level in the new day would keep the buyers in firm control. The current price is trading at 1.3000 - a key natural targetUSDJPY is little changed at 149.25 after moving to the highest level since March 5th. The price is just above the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low at 149.22. That may be a key barometer in the new trading day for both buyers and sellers. The NZDUSD held corrective support at 0.5796 today and is trading at 0.5818 as the day comes to an end. If the price can hold above 0.5796, the bias favors a move toward the 38.2% of the move down from the September 2024 high. That level comes in at 0.5844.AUDUSD sellers had their shot with a move back below the 100 day MA at 0.6349. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price is back above the MA at 0.6361. Tha 100 day MA will be the key barometer in the new trading day. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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