An hour of all-out war followed on the “green tech” revolution and a trashing of the UK’s “world-leading” (Ed Miliband) role at all those environmental summits.
It’s certainly a theme of the moment: the new Trump administration’s first move was to withdraw from the Paris agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5°C. Germany’s incoming leader, Friedrich Merz, is equivocating about his approach to limiting emissions by pursuing “intelligent solutions, not ideological ones”.
So Badenoch’s attack was cannily two-pronged: that the pursuit of net zero policy was doing damage to the economy and would “bankrupt” the UK, but also that it wasn’t deliverable anyway – a fool’s errand when consumers really want cheaper energy.
This meant Badenoch skipping lightly around the issue of why this particular sacred cow was now being led to slaughter, with a brusque explanation that she had been bound by “collective responsibility” when she gave lukewarm support to the 2050 target in previous years.
The Prime Minister’s own style of argument is more focussed on Reform-tempted voters than planet-savers. Badenoch’s assault prods him to choose between keeping net zero largely out of the limelight or doubling down on the public argument when he would rather be honing his appeal on other matters.
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One way or another, this will be a pivotal moment in the evolution in the rocky Badenoch journey through opposition. It plays to one of her strengths, which is to provide blasts of ideas outside the established centre ground of politics – ideas which move towards Reform ideology but also challenge Starmerism.
In the big picture it can always be argued that pretty much every bad thing or stress in the choppy international system is made worse by a failure to curb man-made climate change. That will remain as true as it was yesterday, last year or a decade ago. But the risks are less obvious in the daily lives of people in the northern hemisphere than many other adversities they face.
So in essence, the Tories foresee a growing backlash against the idea – a bet on the futures market of scepticism about net zero, a lot of it real and a good chunk driven by those who are ideological zealots on the right against the whole idea.
Badenoch can lean on (non-ideological) bodies like the Royal United Services Institute who warn that in a time of security threats, the rush to net zero ramps up dependency on lithium-ion supply chains and, ultimately, reliance on China for support to deliver infrastructure and materials for a renewables shift. Yet for many years Conservatives hostile to green measures made the argument that, as China was not serious about addressing climate harms, so the West should not feel obliged to do so either. Having it both ways feels cynical.
“Stay mean, go green” might be a small part of the puzzle, but it doesn’t help figure out the bigger one. If the politics of opposing net zero are an attractive weapon to bash Labour, what do today’s Conservatives really want when it comes to addressing the heated topic of climate change? On that, the outlook is much rhetorical heat – and fog.
Anne McElvoy is host of the Power Play podcast for Politico
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