This time, there is no Russian presence: the aim was to accelerate a peace deal via concessions from Kyiv which Donald Trump can present to Moscow as a reason to stop the bombardment of its neighbour. Conversations were “constructive” and a “work in progress”, as a timid communiqué put it on Tuesday evening. A deal for a proposed 30-day ceasefire was announced.
It’s not unreasonable to wonder if Monday night’s drone attacks on Moscow are an example – as many in the Trump administration and those sceptical of Ukraine’s hopes of salvaging its independence believe – of Kyiv provoking Russia. The attacks, which killed three people, certainly did some considerable damage to Russia’s claim to be able to insulate itself from the war, even if the military impact is negligible.
The immediate aim was to show that it can penetrate Russia’s air defences – an area of clear weakness for the aggressor – and an indication that drone technology can help to offset conventional Russian superiority. More air support from the West as part of a peacekeeping deal would therefore also be a major factor in deterring Moscow from widening the conflict.
It is also the reason for Ukraine backing several assassinations of senior Russian officials: another line of warfare which will not be easily stopped by the stroke of a pen.
square ANNE MCELVOY
This Labour Government is about to get a whole lot more Tory
Read MoreMost of the Ukrainian drones fired this week were shot down over the Kursk region, scene of the pivotal battle of the Second World War, just across the border from Ukraine. But others were launched far into Russian territory, as far as Nizhny Novgorod and the historic cities of Oryol and Ryazan, which forces Russian news to carry coverage it usually plays down or wholly ignores.
One of the most weakening impacts of the bludgeoning of the country by Trump and more sharply still by Elon Musk, who seems to believe that Ukraine is the source of the conflict rather than the victim, is to create a narrative of hopelessness.
“What will the peacekeepers protect,” he asked. “The remnants of the Kyiv-Nazi regime?”
A “win” for Russia would be replacing Zelensky. How far it can impose a Moscow puppet or whether it has to live with another opponent will become the internal political story – one which has huge implications for European security too.
European countries largely do not accept this misrepresentation, but also need to follow up faster with resolute plans and financial commitments on defence-funding mechanisms of their own – warm words now count for little.
In its ideal scenario, Washington does not much care about guarantees given to Ukraine, which would grant them a kind of “semi” autonomy of the kind foisted on other countries being drawn back into a template of the Soviet system by force. The firefights in the skies these days are much less about what happens in the gains and losses of a dreadful conflict than what will happen when the talks on Earth reach their crunch point.
Anne McElvoy is the executive editor of the Politico website and hosts its Power Play podcast
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