And with an effective nuclear deterrent seen as key to holding back the Russian president, attention is turning in Britain to how the government can futureproof Trident.
The move would allow more funds from the newly expanded 2.5 per cent Ministry of Defence budget to be diverted to the armed forces and conventional weapons, while still safeguarding spending on Britain’s nuclear arsenal.
Under such a scenario, the MoD would spend 2.5 per cent by 2027 on non-nuclear military streams such as personnel and conventional kit, while the cost of Trident and other nuclear capabilities would be funded by the Treasury directly.
The MoD said splitting the budget was not something the SDR or government was looking at, while other experts argued that “hiving off” nuclear from the main defence budget would be counter-productive by the UK as one of only two European Nato countries with a nuclear arsenal.
The terms of reference of the review, chaired by former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson, says: “The Government has a total commitment to the independent UK nuclear deterrent. The SDR will consider the efficiency and effectiveness of the nuclear programme.”
“This would help convince the public that we must spend more on our conventional forces.”
They added: “It would make a huge difference to the MoD. The nuclear enterprise is so huge, so expensive, the costs so endlessly unpredictable, but nuclear spending so non-discretionary that the MoD would far rather it was run centrally by the Treasury/Cabinet Office and that the (conventional) defence budget was then for the MoD to manage.”
“If anything the SDR will want to make a virtue of saying that the UK is spending a great deal on the nuclear deterrent, and this benefits Nato.
Within the MoD budget, which is currently around 2.3 per cent of GDP, spending on Trident and other nuclear capabilities has been ring-fenced since 2023 to protect the deterrent, under the Defence Nuclear Enterprise.
There are also ongoing running costs for Trident and other nuclear capabilities, as well as the cost of replacing the UK’s four nuclear Vanguard submarines with a new class of Dreadnought subs, due to be phased in at the start of the next decade, which will be £31bn. This could rise to £41bn as a contingency fund of £10bn has also been set aside.
Last week French president Emmanuel Macron underlined the importance of future-proofing Europe’s nuclear capabilities when he said France would consider extending the protection of its nuclear arsenal to its allies on the Continent.
At the same time Macron warned that Europe needed to be ready for the United States under Trump to not “remain by our side” in the war in Ukraine.
But there are fears over the future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent if Washington did decide to uncouple entirely militarily from London.
The UK retains complete operational control over its nuclear submarines and missiles, the maintenance of the warheads is jointly carried out by the UK and US.
However even if Trump decided to cut off this cooperation, he is likely to be out of office by the time the missiles need to be replaced.
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