The Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP tracker has plunged to -1.5% from +2.3% in one of the steepest declines the index has ever seen.
I'd caution that it's still very early in the quarterly data cycle.
I'm confident that's due to front-running of tariffs and inventory stockpiling.
However there is also a drag from consumption, which highlights some of the uncertainty. A downside risk is from residential investment, which is looking dismal after guidance from Home Depot and the latest pending home sales number (which hit a record low).
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