Trump has shown that he is ready to make far-reaching concessions over the heads of Ukraine and its European allies.
Trump is also happy to repeat Russian falsehoods about Ukraine and to support its attacks on its beleaguered president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
Russian newspapers report a recent phone call between Putin and Trump (Photo: Maxim Shemetov)
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that Russia will have to make compromises. Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defence, has spoken of the need for any peace settlement to be backed by robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
During his 25 years in power, Putin has never encountered a Western leader like Trump. The US President has the psychology and skills of a businessman – as well as the experience of a New York property developer in dealing with organised crime bosses like Putin.
I'm a British soldier and saw Russia invade Ukraine - Trump is selling out Kyiv
Read MoreFor this reason, completely surrendering Ukraine is not an option for Trump. But addressing the root causes of the war and forging a peace settlement that excludes US boots on the ground are mission impossible for as long as Putin is in power.
This would require a ceasefire to last several months and would give the Russian army time to re-group.
Over the past three years, Ukrainian and Western hopes that the costs of war for Russia would persuade Putin to change course have proved futile – and are set to remain so.
Damaged buildings in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine (Photo: National Guard of Ukraine / AFP)
The army has learned important lessons in Ukraine and continues to slowly advance in Donbas despite huge losses of men and equipment. Manpower is becoming more of an issue as recruitment levels drop, but the problem but it is far from acute.
Putin’s regime wobbled for a moment in June 2023 when elements of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private army marched on Moscow.
I'm a British soldier and saw Russia invade Ukraine - Trump is selling out Kyiv
Read MorePutin probably has resources for another two years to continue fighting at current levels of intensity to try to force Ukraine into a surrender.
The “slow cook” ceasefire is Putin’s most attractive option. It might also quickly bring about a relaxation of sanctions.
John Lough is a former Nato representative in Moscow and current Head of Foreign Policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), a London-based think-tank focused on Russia’s long-term future
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