From record-breaking arms deals to strategic manoeuvring in the Middle East, the stakes in Trump’s second term are higher than ever.
Breaking from the tradition of US presidents visiting the UK before any other country after taking office, Trump’s first overseas trip in 2017 was to Saudi Arabia. Now in his second term, Trump will prioritise strengthening America’s partnership with the kingdom.
While addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos one day later, Trump said that he will ask MBS, whom he called a “fantastic guy”, to round up the $600bn pledge to “around $1trn”. Trump asserted that the Saudis would do this “because we’ve been very good to them”.
Donald Trump makes a special remote address at the 55th annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland (Photo: Yves Herman/Reuters)Saudi Arabia has long effectively deployed a transactional approach to its ties with African, Asian, and European countries. Although many of the kingdom’s partners emphasise the “historical nature of their ties” with Riyadh, Dr Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, explained to The i Paper that “the Saudi leadership has become more transactional and is ultimately interested in the bottom line and what partners can deliver”.
Based on everything which he achieved during his first term, along with his campaign rhetoric and actions taken since just beginning his second term, Trump is determined to move ahead with his “America First” strategy.
Taking advantage of the fact that hardly anyone in Washington is still expressing outrage over the journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder and Saudi Arabia’s “peacemaker” image amid the Ukraine conflict, Riyadh is positioned to secure an increasingly important role in the future of US foreign policy amid Trump’s presidency.
A demonstrator holds a poster with a picture of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi outside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, where he was killed (Osman Orsal/Reuters)“At the moment Saudi Arabia has more goodies that the US wants then the other way around. US interests in the region remain fixed on the continued free flow of oil and gas in the world markets. Saudi Arabia remains one of the pre-eminent world markets for American exports, especially weaponry and capital goods. Saudi Arabia has an enormous amount of cash to dangle in front of Trump,” Theros told The i Paper.
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“In the past, Trump has seen no need to distinguish between his financial interests and the national interests of the United States, and he is likely to continue pursuing both whether or not he holds the office of the presidency,” commented Dr Kamrava.
“There remains a deep suspicion of Saudi Arabia in the US – amongst the political elite [and] public at large – and if Trump is to overcome such suspicions, he will have to demonstrate that strong relations benefit not only the US, but his base too. As such, we are likely to see the awarding of major contracts to Trump family-linked businesses, which the President will telegraph as successes for the US,” he added.
The limits of money
Ryan Bohl, senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, holds that for all the investment pledges and supportive rhetoric from MBS, the new US administration will be challenged to persuade Riyadh to make changes that truly benefit Washington geopolitically.
At the same time, Trump’s team will not be in a position to pull Saudi Arabia away from China given how much Riyadh values its relationship with Beijing, particularly within the Vision 2030 context. As much as challenging China will be a focus for Trump 2.0, “Saudi Arabia will not want to co-operate with Washington over trying to economically isolate China”, Bohl told The i Paper. “Saudi Arabia will want to play both sides as much as it can.”
As Theros put it, “These may be deals too big even for the King of Dealmakers”.
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