UNC’s Roller-Coaster Ride Continues Under Fourth-Year Coach Hubert Davis
By David Glenn
For the second time in four seasons, North Carolina basketball is in crisis mode.
The Tar Heels, just 12-8 after falling 67-66 at Wake Forest on Tuesday, are in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in the last three years.
In the last half-century, going all the way back to the mid-1970s, there has been only one time the Tar Heels missed the Big Dance twice in a three-year period.
Under coach Matt Doherty, who lasted only three seasons in Chapel Hill, the Heels missed the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back years (2002 and 2003). Faced with his inevitable dismissal, in part because of toxic player-coach relationships, Doherty opted to resign in April 2003.
Like Doherty, who led Carolina to a first-place tie in the ACC standings during his first season at his alma mater, fourth-year UNC coach Hubert Davis has experienced significant success as the program’s leader.
Under Davis, the Tar Heels won 29 games and played in the national championship game in 2022. Just last year, they went 17-3 in conference play, winning the ACC regular-season title, and advanced to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.
A more complete snapshot of Davis’ tenure as coach Roy Williams’ successor, though, illustrates the roller-coaster nature of Carolina’s past four seasons.
Season—Record (Conference)—Postseason
2021-22—29-10 (15-5/2nd)—NCAA Tournament Runner-up
2022-23—20-13 (11-9/7th)—(turned down NIT invitation)
2023-24—29-8 (17-3/1st)—NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
2024-25—12-8 (5-3/5th)—???
Asked after the Wake Forest loss about his post-game message to his struggling team, Davis opted to keep his answer private.
“Well, the message is for them,” Davis said. “I appreciate you asking me that question, but there’s some things that are just meant for us and for our team.
“But I love these guys. I love coaching them. I love this team, and I believe in these kids.”
Looking ahead, this year’s Tar Heels likely will be the underdog at least four more times during the regular season: at Pittsburgh (Jan. 28), at Duke (Feb. 1), at Clemson (Feb. 10) and at home against the highly ranked Blue Devils (March 8).
Given their mediocre (7-5) nonconference record this season, the Heels probably will have to win at least two of those four challenging ACC contests — while also avoiding more upsets, such as last Saturday’s home loss to a middling Stanford squad — to feel good about their NCAA Tournament chances this season.
For now, even UNC’s best wins don’t look quite as good as they did at the time.
When the Tar Heels beat UCLA at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 21, the Bruins were 10-1 and high in the national rankings. Now they are 13-6, out of the Top 25 and buried in the middle of the Big Ten standings.
When the Tar Heels beat Dayton on Nov. 25, the Flyers were 5-0 and one of the preseason favorites in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Now they are 13-6 and buried in the middle of the A-10 standings.
Before the UNC-Wake game, which was televised on ESPN, the studio commentators were guilty of journalistic malpractice when they attempted to summarize the Tar Heels’ struggles this season.
The conversation revolved almost entirely around the Tar Heels’ defense, and their supposed inability to “get stops,” despite the fact that — during conference play — UNC has played the second-best defense (behind only Duke) in the entire ACC.
For example, Carolina has held its league opponents to only 23 percent shooting from 3-point range so far this season. That is by far the best number in the ACC.
Even in the loss to Wake Forest, UNC created and mostly executed an outstanding defensive game plan.
The Heels held Hunter Sallis, the Demon Deacons’ first-team All-ACC guard, who had been on a long streak of 20-plus-point outings, to 14 extremely inefficient points. Sallis converted only seven of his 19 field goal attempts and missed all six of his 3-point tries. He also had zero assists and three turnovers.
“I thought we competed defensively the entire game,” Davis said. “I felt like our competitive fight was really good.”
Davis was 100 percent right on both counts.
What is obvious to most is that, as in their disastrous 2022-23 campaign, the Tar Heels just can’t seem to make their rotational pieces fit together in a manner that produces consistently efficient offense.
In 2022-23, when Carolina was third in the ACC in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, the team was 10th (among 15 teams) in offensive efficiency. Among other problems, the backcourt chemistry between starting guards RJ Davis and Caleb Love simply never clicked.
In 2024-25, a similar story has played out so far. The Tar Heels are second in defensive efficiency during conference play, but they are 14th (among 18 teams) in offensive efficiency. Again, poor backcourt chemistry seems to be a lingering problem.
(photo via Todd Melet)
Given the Tar Heels’ lack of a high-quality post player, a truly unprecedented development over the past 60-plus years, it wasn’t difficult to foresee some ups and downs for the team at the offensive end of the floor. The lack of a reliable scoring threat near the basket inevitably makes things more difficult for perimeter players.
Even after factoring those post issues into the equation, though, some of the Tar Heels’ ongoing backcourt struggles are difficult to comprehend.
How has Davis, a fifth-year senior and a 40 percent 3-point shooter last season, fallen all the way to 29 percent? Why is sophomore point guard Elliot Cadeau, whose #1 offseason priority was improving his extremely inconsistent outside shot, still under 30 percent from beyond the arc, too? How did junior guard Seth Trimble, who appeared to be a dynamic scorer and blossoming All-ACC candidate earlier this season, somehow misplace that magic at midseason?
Most importantly, why are the Tar Heels so dysfunctional on offense so often despite the massive backcourt minutes of that very experienced trio as well as rookie Ian Jackson, who already has proven himself as one of the ACC’s elite freshmen?
In ACC games, Carolina is converting only 30.7 percent of its 3-point attempts so far this season. The only teams worse in that category are Cal, Miami and Syracuse, three squads clearly destined to remain in the bottom half of the conference standings.
In their loss at Wake Forest, the Tar Heels hit only eight of their 32 long-range attempts (25 percent) and shot a woeful 40 percent from the field overall, leading to a post-game question about the team’s “stagnant” offense.
“I disagree. I don’t think the offense was stagnant,” Hubert Davis said. “I think we had some open shots and we had some good looks. And sometimes shots go in, sometimes they don’t.”
Whatever the explanation or analysis, UNC is running out of time to get things fixed.
After a home game against lowly Boston College on Saturday, the Tar Heels will face the toughest stretch of their entire ACC schedule: at Pitt (Jan. 28), at Duke (Feb. 1), Pitt at home (Feb. 8) and at Clemson (Feb. 10).
Which way will this roller-coaster turn next?
David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.
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