Starmer losing voters to Farage’s Reform on migration, mega-poll shows ...Middle East

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Nigel Farage’s Reform would scoop 120 seats at the next election, while Labour would see the number of MPs plummet to 278, a major constituency-by-constituency breakdown of voters reveals.

The firm’s new multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) modelling finds that swathes of Labour’s so-called “hero voters” – those who switched from the Tories or voted for Labour for the first time – are open to switching to Reform UK, with immigration cited as the number one reason behind their shift in allegiances.

While any such polling so far out from a general election is unlikely to cause major concern in Downing Street, pollsters behind the survey say the data should act as a “wake-up call” for the Government when it comes to immigration.

In contrast, more than half – 55 per cent – of so-called “Reform switchers” from Labour named immigration and border control as their top priority, followed by “health and the state of the NHS”, with 47 per cent citing this as a priority. Cost of living issues, such as rising food prices and energy bills were next with 46 per cent and 32 per cent naming these respectively.

One backbench Labour MP said that Channel crossings were an issue in his seat “despite my constituency being miles away from the coast”.

The Labour administration, which entered office in July, faced opposition accusations of having “lost control of our borders” as Home Office data suggested 36,816 people made the journey last year.

In November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was forced to revise up its net migration figures, revealing 906,000 people had entered the UK in the year up to June 2023.

“Immigration is the key issue that is driving them away from Labour,” Betham said, before adding: “Labour should start by focusing on where these voters are, not where the party wants them to be.

Labour’s Dover and Deal MP Mike Tapp, who holds a 7,000 vote majority over Reform, told The i Paper: “We know that this matters to voters and it matters to us too, border security is a part of our national security and that is why it is a fundamental part of our plans to rebuild the country.

Pollsters said the analysis shows how “shallow” Labour’s general election was, which saw the party secure 411 seats with just 34 per cent share of the national vote.

Such a result would mean senior Cabinet members, such as Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband lose their seats along with Defence Secretary John Healey, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy, the Culture Secretary.

But the overall accuracy of such mega-polls is still up for debate in the wake of the general election, with experts warning that such surveys find it hard to accurately project final constituency results when votes are split between four or more parties.

“Reform won five seats in July. Six months on this poll shows we would win 120 seats.

Stonehaven’s model was created from survey data of 17,000 people since the general election, with the latest figures taken in December.

Reform threat to Labour ‘rising’ in Angela Rayner’s constituency and surrounding area

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s seat would be at risk in the next election, according to a new poll (Photo: Dan Kitwwod/PA Wire)

By Alexa Phillips

Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner is at risk of losing her seat to Reform, according to the poll.

She won the Ashton-under-Lyne constituency with a majority of 6,791, with the candidate for Farage’s party coming second.

Anecdotally, some voters in the area say support for Reform has been growing since the election.

Pauline Town, 56, voted for Labour and would still do so today but said she is feeling “slightly disenfranchised and disillusioned” with the Government.

“Reform are certainly gaining ground locally,” she said. “There’s a lot of right-wing sentiment locally, and I think they’re capitalising on the fact that people in the centre and people more to the left are feeling let down by what the Government isdoing currently.

“My worry is that if Labour doesn’t do something to win back some of the hearts and minds that it is losing, in less than five years’ time we’re going to end up with a very right-wing government.”

Ms Town, who runs a pub and community hub that helps people in need, said she still believed it could be a safe Labour seat and praised Angela Rayner for her work in the constituency to help local groups like hers, which “doesn’t necessarily get publicised”.

She said Ms Rayner was increasingly the target of “hate” which was “very sexualised”, “misogynistic” and “disturbing to see”.

However, Ms Town said she does not agree with how the winter fuel allowance was cut. She and other community groups are increasingly hearing from older people who are struggling as a result of the decision.

“We’ve got pensioners scared of putting the heating on – that potentially is people dying,” she said. 

“For me, that’s not what Labour should be about.”

She also expressed concern that the government did not keep its promises to Waspi women.

Jenny Ardron-Adams voted for Reform UK

Jenny Ardron-Adams, 56, from Stalybridge in the surrounding area, is among those who have joined Reform. 

“A lot of people voted for Labour because their parents did, but Labour are not the same as they used to be when people were down in the mines,” she said. 

“We need a big change.”

She said the biggest issue is people feeling angry about “being taxed on everything”.

“Illegal immigrants are being put in different areas where we live,” she said. “People are up in arms about that. 

“The way they’re treating the farmers is terrible, especially with the man who took his own life because he was worried about the inheritance tax rise. 

“We are all for the farmers. That’s what Reform is about: save the green belt, look after farmers, look after the elderly and look after our children for the future.”

Ms Ardron-Adams, a receptionist, said the Labour government “don’t see how the normal person lives at all”.

“I’ve got a son now who has started work,” she said. “There’s no way he’s going to be able to afford a house.”

She and others are trying to stop a proposed development on a green belt area which has upset a lot of people who want to see brownfield sites and empty buildings being used for housing instead. 

People worry that immigrants are fuelling demand for housing and contributing to the loss of the green belt, she added.

Ms Ardron-Adams said rising living costs and the state of the NHS have also angered locals.

“You can’t get a doctor’s appointment for weeks,” she said. 

“You go to the walk-in and you’re not being seen for up to eight hours. There are people in the corridors. It’s an absolute disgrace. The whole thing needs to change.”

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