But then Donald Trump – a man whom Farage loves, in roughly the same way teenage girls love boy bands – won the popular vote in the US. And Farage announced that Elon Musk, not content with buggering up one country, had entered talks about bankrolling his party. Suddenly, media organisations are putting out reports and podcasts with headlines like (this from the Financial Times) “Can Nigel Farage turn Reform into a serious contender for government?” or (Politics JOE): “Nigel Farage will be the next UK Prime Minister.” “All Starmer’s failings,” warns Guardian columnist Aditya Chakrabortty, are “fuelling the rise of Reform.”
The party may have only won five seats, a long way from the 13 suggested by the general election exit poll. But it pulled in 4 million votes – half a million more than the Lib Dems – and came second in 89 more seats. Farage has also grown bafflingly popular on TikTok, suggesting a new, more youthful following, too.
Well – yes. For a start, the next election is ages away – constitutionally, Trump should leave office several months before Keir Starmer will be forced to call it – so all predictions made now are essentially meaningless. If, by 2029, inflation falls and the NHS improves, Labour should have a chance. If not, all bets are off.
There are other reasons for cynicism about Farage’s prospects. YouGov may have found him to be the “least unpopular” current party leader. But just 30 per cent of Britons have a favourable view of him, compared to 61 per cent against: hardly anyone is undecided, leaving little room for substantial movement. Those who do like him are also, to put it delicately, disproportionately in the age group least likely to be voting next time around.
There are questions, too, as to whether Farage has the people skills required to be a statesman, not a rabble rouser. It’s one thing to be thin-skinned in the face of opposition or criticism; quite another to have a habit of falling out with any party colleague who begins attaining prominence.
Jeremy Corbyn and Gavin Williamson wouldn't be the weirdest alliance this parliament
Read MoreThat doesn’t mean we can entirely stop worrying. Unexpected things do keep happening, and Farage keeps outperforming expectations. But the danger is that, like a monster in a Christmas ghost story, the more we believe in Farage, the more real he will become.
Any politician that wants to defeat Farage should spend more time explaining why he’s wrong, and less claiming he’s right but that they’d do it better. This is the time for New Year’s resolutions. In 2025, we should all stop letting the leader of a party with five MPs set the terms of debate.
Jonn Elledge is a columnist at the New Statesman
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