MUFG: EUR/USD could test parity in 2025 before modest recovery ...Middle East

MUFG expects the euro to remain under pressure in 2025, driven by anticipated U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions, with EUR/USD potentially testing parity before staging a modest recovery.Key Points:Election Impact: The euro fell sharply following Donald Trump’s election victory, with markets bracing for aggressive trade, immigration, and fiscal policies.Tariff Risks: U.S. trade tariff actions are expected to dominate FX dynamics in early 2025, with the euro particularly vulnerable given the euro-zone’s significant trade surplus with the U.S.The U.S.-euro-zone trade deficit widened from $158bn in 2019 to $196bn by September 2024.Geopolitical Pressures:Trump may leverage the euro-zo

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