The Canadian dollar is in a tough spot. The US dollar rose 15 pips against the loonie today to 1.3950, which is the first time at that level since 2022. The next level to watch is 1.3978, as a rise above that level would be the highest since the pandemic. And other than a brief spike in the pandemic, and a spike in the 2016 oil collapse, USD/CAD hasn't been sustained at these levels since 2003.The problem for the loonie is that Canada's economy is struggling and the long-term picture is worsening. The housing market is impaired and new home sales are slowing due to high interest rates. Even if the Bank of Canada cuts, longer-term fixed rates (5 years are standard in Canada) have been rising.
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