I wrote about the main factors driving USD/JPY higher earlier but the move has now extended to 200 pips, including about 80 since the ADP data.Treasury yields are up 3-6 bps across the curve and some are saying that's because of diminishing fears of Middle East war. I'm not so sure that's the case. I think what the bond market is looking at is oil and the possibility that a war spikes the oil price at a time of US and China stimulus.That could upend the fear trade are re-stoke inflation.I think that's still a small part of the picture in USD/JPY as it's more about the Fed and Japanese domestic factors but it's certainly a risk to ponder. Also note that new PM Ishiba said Japan is not in an e
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