A pollster’s warning: Beware 2024 election polls  ...Middle East

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Last Monday, the New York Times published a series of polls showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamla Harris in the three “Sun Belt” swing states — Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.  Trump’s lead in those states exceeds the margins that either Trump  or Harris had previously held in these same states. Further, in Arizona (+5) and Georgia (+4), Trump’s lead is also greater than the margin of error, with North Carolina (+2) being slightly closer.  Yet just a few days after the New York Times released its data, Bloomberg-Morning Consult released swing state polls of their own. Per their survey, Harris is leading by 3 points in Arizona and 2 points i

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