Here's a note from Bank of America yesterday: Softer than expected April payrolls (175K) and April CPI (core: dropped to 3.6% YOY, 0.3% MOM) pulled forward first Fed rate cut from November to September. The 10y UST yield has dropped from a peak of 4.7% on 4/25/24 to 4.35% today.. The Citi economic surprise index has rolled over meaningfully in recent weeks, as economic data has shown clear signs of softening. At -21.6, the economic surprise index is close to the most negative reading since January 2023. We think the softening data is the long-awaited response to tight monetary policy of the past few years and do not think it is an anomaly. The soft-landing scenario is unfolding. A large dive
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