In 2018 Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) barely won re-election to the U.S. Senate, with the narrowest statewide margin victory of any Texas Republican since 1998. Six years later, however, Cruz is well on his way to re-election, with little worry of another close race, let alone a defeat. This is despite that Democrats view Texas as their best hope for flipping a GOP held Senate seat in 2024. In 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came closer to winning a statewide race than any Democrat since 1998, falling to Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. O’Rourke’s success was the result of a perfect storm of forces that converged in the Lone Star State that year. First, an increasingly unpopular President
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