For decades a low-intensity regional war in the Middle East has been ongoing, but it took Hamas's surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 to bring this conflict into sharper focus. For some time, a mostly shadowy “gray zone” contest for influence in Syria and Iraq has taken place. Occasionally, “tit-for-tat attacks” play out elsewhere in the Middle East. But now, the conflict is coalescing into a full-blown Iranian axis of resistance that’s been growing stronger for years. When I departed the National Security Council in 2018, I expressed serious concerns that the U.S. was at risk of overcorrecting its counterterrorism policy attention and resources by pivoting too hard toward great
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