ANZ forecast for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ahead of the November 29 monetary policy meeting. central forecast no longer includes a resumption of hiking, though we still see this as a significant riskhave pushed out our expectation for cuts by one quarter (to February 2025), with our terminal forecast at 4.75%, still considered contractionaryRecent data has been a little mixed but overall has gone the RBNZ’s way (particularly key labour market data). We expect the RBNZ to hold the OCR unchanged at 5.5% at its MPS on 29 November, and to publish an OCR track that is very similar to August (with a peak of 5.59% but potentially later cuts). Either a fall or a lift in the OCR track could be
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