Action Network’s NFL Luck Rankings are back for 2023! Our Luck Rankings use a metric we call Luck%, which aims to represent the win probability difference between a team’s overall performance and its actual winning percentage. We do this through our Expected Score metric, which identifies the score a team would score on average when facing the specific game situations it encountered. As an example, let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles have fourth and goal on the opposing team’s 1-yard line. If we were to replay this scenario a million times, the Eagles are likely to punch the ball into the end zone quite a bit. But there’s also a chance they don’t. By doing this on every play of a drive, and
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