Forecasting tools Dr. Bill Conerly Long-run forecasting seems difficult, especially in light of the challenges of short-term forecasting, such as whether we’ll have a recession, if inflation will come down, or if the Ukraine war will end. Fortunately, we don’t have to predict every twist and turn in order to predict the ultimate outcome. If I play a game of chess against a grand master, I confidently predict that I will lose. I cannot predict my opponent’s moves, but I’m sure I will lose. Many business decisions depend on long-term conditions. Should an electric utility build a power plant with a large up-front cost and that will last 30 years or more? Should a bank go into another market
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