Ukraine is widely expected to conduct a counteroffensive in the next weeks. Operational security prevents us from knowing where exactly Ukrainian forces will attempt to push the Russian line or what the territorial objective may be. Will they try to retake the eastern oblasts and perhaps the Azov Sea littoral? Or will they go deeper to reassert Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea, lost in 2014? There is certainly a good legal and moral case for Ukraine to do the latter. Crimea has been annexed by Russia illegally, and Ukraine is right in demanding it back. But politically and strategically, it is not a good idea. It is risky for Ukraine, an exhausted nation dependent on tenuous in
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