Wall Street’s favorite economist just issued a wake-up call, reminding us that sometimes “it’s ok until it isn’t.” That is, during Fed tightening cycles, the economy can appear just fine and continue to hum along — until all at once it falls out of bed. Ed Hyman, who has been ranked the Street’s top economist for an extraordinary 42 years, cites the 2007-2009 downturn as an example. The housing crisis emerged in 2006; the yield curve inverted in that year’s third quarter, the Fed paused and the economy continued to grow. Two years in, the economy began to meaningfully contract, in the third quarter of 2008. In other words, the downturn took a long time to develop, just as it has in this
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