Multiple Kremlin-backed authorities in occupied areas of eastern and southern Ukraine have announced they will hold referendums on formally joining Russia this week, in a move that threatens to redefine the parameters of the conflict. The referendums could pave the way for Russian annexation of the areas, allowing Moscow to frame the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there as an attack on Russia itself, thereby providing Moscow with a pretext to escalate its military response. The latest developments follow a significant shift in Russia’s position after a sudden and successful Ukrainian offensive through most of occupied Kharkiv this month, which has galvanized Ukraine’s Western backers and
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