The mid-term election predictions are starting to roll in. RealClearPolitics has 218-183 (D-R) House with 34 tossup and 46-46 Senate with 8 tossup, while The Cook Political Report is at 213-190 (D-R) House with 32 tossup, and 48-48 Senate with 4 tossup. With some distance to go before Election Day, those numbers are going to change. The post-election debate will shift to how each party performed. So, what should be the benchmark against which results are judged? Figuring the reasonable expectations is part math and part educated guess. A purely statistical model does not work as there is simply not enough data. There have only been four first midterm elections since the collapse of the
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