The world is facing the risk that major central banks will undertake competitive interest-rate hikes that may look desirable for their countries individually but could drag the world economy into an unnecessary recession. This scenario can still be avoided, but the window of opportunity is closing. Aggressive interest-rate increases designed to combat high inflation at home make sense in isolation. For example, in view of the US Federal Reserve’s prolonged underestimation of the persistence of US inflation, Chair Jerome Powell’s recent vow to continue hiking rates, despite the risk of recession, seems reasonable. To ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored at a low level, the Fed
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