The conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms hasn’t always been matched by the polling, which has shown Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races around the country. That disagreement can also be seen in the relatively large gap between FiveThirtyEight’s “Lite” and “Deluxe” 2022 midterms forecasts. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of that divergence and answer other listener questions about the forecast model. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden’s success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats’ performance
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