Republicans have every reason to be optimistic about their party’s political prospects in this year’s midterm elections. Democrats are widely blamed for soaring inflation, President Biden’s approval rating just hit a record low and the GOP has approximately a 2-point advantage in the generic ballot for Congress. On top of that, the party of the president has lost House seats in every midterm election — except for two — since 1946 and has only gained Senate seats in four. Even though it is essentially a guarantee that the GOP will win control of the House, the fate of the Senate is much less uncertain. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight rates the Senate as a toss-up and gives Republicans
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