In light of repeated forecasting errors, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been forced to frequently revise their economic projections and to radically alter their forward guidance in recent months. Importantly, monetary policy missteps were a major contributor to the emergence of a once-in-a-generation inflation shock. Consequently, the Fed has lost some credibility. Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May, Chairman Jerome Powell offered a clear signal that 50-basis point rate hikes should be penciled in for June and July. Yet, following a jump in consumer inflation expectations and a spike in the Consumer Price Index-based inflation rate last week, the Fe
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