Climate scientists are now basing their forecasts for the future on a carefully crafted set of possible socioeconomic scenarios, each with a different outlook for greenhouse gas emissions. We saw this for the first time in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, issued on Aug. 9. One key factor in these scenarios is the cost of clean energy technology; the higher the cost, the longer the economy-wide shift away from fossil fuels will likely take.But a growing body of research is finding that the cost of clean energy is falling much faster than forecasts by experts, and the extrapolation of past cost curves, suggest.“We often find it hard to imagine futures that are very
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