With Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out and supportive fiscal and monetary policies fuelling aggregate demand, the US economy is poised to return to its pre-pandemic output level later this year. The labour-market recovery, however, will be much slower and unevenly distributed, with employment unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic peak until 2024. If output growth exceeds employment growth over the next few years, productivity will increase (at least temporarily). The Congressional Budget Office’s most recent forecast predicts labour-force productivity growth of 1.5% per year for the 2021-25 period, up from an average of 1.2% per year between 2008 and 2020. In response to the pandemic, man
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