I have spent nearly four decades in and around financial markets, and that experience has left me with certain habits and preconceptions. I am, for example, usually reluctant to take an obvious trade and would far rather take a contrarian stance on a well-hyped story. I guess if I were to sit down with a psychiatrist, they would tell me that that is a product of the kind of arrogance that is needed to survive in a dealing room, but I prefer to think of it as a sensible way of avoiding a crowded trade. When a strategy is obvious, lots of people…
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