With vaccinations raising hopes for an end to the pandemic, predictions about the post-Covid world are multiplying fast. From envisioning a reordered economy to forecasting how people will live, work, and play, experts are doing their best to extrapolate from developments that the virus has put into motion. In the United States, most forecasters, whether on Wall Street or in Washington, are fixated on the short term: namely, the likelihood of higher US economic growth following mass vaccination (which will liberate consumer spending) and a new $1.9 trillion recovery package. Fortunately, two economists at the International Monetary Fund have lent some balance to the prevailing bullishness.
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