The expected wobble in the polar vortex that sends Arctic temperatures south, however, could be in competition with the strong El Niño forecast for this winter—but experts say that how it will impact our weather remains to be seen.
Every few winters, the polar vortex will be disrupted, causing what is known as sudden stratospheric warming, in which temperatures in the stratosphere jump by 50-70 degrees in a few days. That can displace cold air, pushing it down towards parts of North America, Europe, or Asia.
The polar vortex disruption currently being observed by meteorologists is the earliest ever recorded, as it typically weakens during the second half of winter. “Typically we think of this happening toward the end of the winter, in January or February,” says Andrew Charlton-Perez, professor of meteorology at the University of Reading. “So what's unusual about this event is that it's the earliest recorded sudden warming event.”
How will the polar vortex interact with El Niño?
A weak polar vortex in November by no means dictates the rest of the winter. “This is not going to determine how our winter is going to be,” says Cohen. “It could make it colder right at the start of winter, but I don't think its influence will last much longer than that.”
El Niño years typically bring milder temperatures, but much depends on how it interacts with the polar vortex over the rest of the winter.
However, if the El Niño and polar vortex work against each other, what the weather looks like could just depend on which force wins out.
Just how it all plays out remains to be seen.
“We've never had a polar vortex disruption of this magnitude and a super El Nino,” says Cohen. “So in some ways, this is uncharted territory.”
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