Parts of the Chicago area could see nearly a foot of snow overnight Thursday and into Friday, though exactly where the flakes will fall remains up in the air as the weather pattern nears the region.
The uncertainty of the storm is thanks to the several factors required for lake-effect snow to form, including blustery winds out of the northeast and warm temperatures over Lake Michigan. Those factors, combined with dry air in the Chicago area, could mean snow falls even if air temperatures stay slightly above freezing.
If enough factors come together, the potential for significant accumulations with snowfall totals of 10 or more inches increases. That said, the tendency of lake-effect snow events to move back and forth between areas could limit the accumulations seen, and how quickly air cools in impacted areas also plays a key role in if and when rain turns to snow.
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, the earlier the air cools, the higher the potential accumulations could get, as mixed precipitation or rain would prevent much accumulation from happening.
You can track the weather live in your area using NBC Chicago’s live interactive radar below.
Rain was expected to start in the late evening hours before transitioning to mixed precipitation, and ultimately to snow over parts of the Chicago area. The weather is likely to impact the morning commute, as a good chance of snow remains through 6 a.m. in northwest Indiana, and eastern Will County, Kankakee County and parts of Cook County could also see the impacts between 6 and 10 a.m., with wet, slushy snow accumulation possible.
The forecast of areas expected to get the most snow has shifted west from what was predicted earlier this week, with areas along the Illinois-Indiana state line facing the highest chance of significant snowfall as of Thursday evening.
That said, there could be significant differences in the amounts of snow seen even across short distances, as is typical for lake-effect snow events. Lake-effect bands tend to be very narrow, and snowfall totals can vary wildly in very short distances, according to the NBC 5 Storm Team.
The National Weather Service issued a winter weather advisory that remains in effect for southern Cook County, eastern Will County and most of Lake County in Indiana through 10 a.m. Friday.
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