In the end, Republicans won most of Florida’s major statewide races––one of the few losses Democrats suffered. On the surface, the sea change that swept through the country appeared to have missed Florida. But Democratic candidates here didn’t lose by much, and that distinction paints a more complicated picture of Florida’s electorate.
On election night, Alfred Soto, an associate teaching professor of communications at Florida International University, was momentarily buoyed as he watched the vote count with friends in Miami. For years, Soto mobilized voters as part of the Cuban American Democrats, before the organization disbanded earlier this year. “As I saw those early returns, I thought, can we do this? Is this possible?”
Jolly came within roughly 1 point of winning the governor’s race, while Nixon came within roughly 3 points of flipping a U.S. Senate seat. Every county in Florida, except one, moved blue—in some cases, by double digits.
As I write this, Salazar’s race has entered a recount and though Díaz-Balart has claimed victory, that race remains too close to call. It is a stunning turn of events when you consider that they are two longtime Republican incumbents running in heavily Hispanic districts.
Many Cubans, who make up the largest share of voters in the city, cringe at the mere mention of socialism. And yet, Nixon made huge headway campaigning on an agenda that included Medicare for All, universal childcare, and other democratic socialist priorities.
Latinos in Florida are feeling the impacts of Trump’s policies
Many Florida families have been battered by the Trump administration’s immigration policies. Haitians in South Florida who lost Temporary Protected Status have lost their jobs and are afraid to step outside. In Doral, where there is a strong Venezuelan community, some businesses have shuttered, and local officials are facing pressure over the city’s cooperation agreement with ICE.
And it’s not just immigration. South Florida is now considered one of the most expensive places in the country.
“The difference is crazy,” she said. Even a small pack of Bustelo coffee (a staple in many Latino households) costs $8. Her elderly parents, who live off $32,000 a year, lost their Medicaid as a result of recent federal policy changes and administrative cutbacks.
To be sure, Florida has shifted in recent years. Senator Rick Scott and Gov. Ron DeSantis have shaped who moved to the state and changed how voter rolls were maintained. On paper, the state became much safer for Republicans.
Díaz-Balart nearly lost in a race that few people were focusing on or talking about. In Orlando, Democratic Rep. Darren Soto appeared to be holding on in a district redrawn after the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, which split the area’s Puerto Rican community across several districts and dropped his seat’s Hispanic share to about 36%.
But to fund a serious program in Florida, national Democratic groups would need to focus on year-round organizing, instead of concentrating most of their efforts around election time. This matters especially because Florida has over 5.6 million registered Republicans, more than 4.1 million Democrats, and over 3.3 million with no party affiliation. Reaching and persuading even some of those unaffiliated voters could make a real difference in statewide elections.
‘Walking away has its own costs’
Rocha argued that winning statewide would take longer-term investment, because many young Latinos are just becoming eligible to vote, and many are frustrated with both parties. That means reaching them on streaming services and YouTube, not network TV, to “remind people why their life sucks, and who’s to blame, and what you’re going to do to fix it.”
“The mantra was always: Florida’s too big, too complicated, too expensive,” Odio said. “But walking away has its own costs.”
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