Antalya, Nov. 10 (SANA) Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to fall slightly this year as renewable energy expands and an oil price shock linked to the war between the United States and Iran reduces consumption, according to the Global Carbon Budget report.The report, released as countries gather for the United Nations climate conference (COP31) in Antalya, projects a 0.4% decline in emissions this year, Agence France-Presse reported.Emissions from burning oil, gas and coal — the main drivers of climate change — rose by an average of 0.9% annually over the past decade, reaching a record high in 2025. The projected decline would be the first annual drop since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the global economy, trade and transport.Researchers involved in preparing the report found that the war between the United States and Iran, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to lower emissions by reducing oil consumption amid a sharp rise in crude prices.The expansion of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles has contributed to the projected decline. The report found that solar power, wind energy and electric vehicles are meeting two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.
Warnings of a possible emissions rebound
Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget office at the University of Exeter in Britain, described the decline in fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions as encouraging, but warned that a drop partly driven by geopolitical shocks does not offer a lasting climate solution.“The long-term solution remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies,” he said.Corinne Le Quéré, a professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, said emissions had risen again as economies recovered from disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. She said a rebound was likely once oil-related tensions eased.Oil-related emissions are estimated to have fallen by 1.9% last year, but researchers said this was probably a short-term response to the energy shock caused by the war with Iran.Emissions from gas are expected to fall by 0.3%, while those from coal are projected to rise by 0.6%. Total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are forecast to reach 38.2 billion tones in 2026.Including emissions from land-use changes such as deforestation, total carbon dioxide emissions are expected to reach 43.3 billion tones, up from 42.8 billion tones last year.The Global Carbon Budget, produced by the Global Carbon Project, tracks global carbon dioxide emissions and the natural systems that absorb them. It is a key benchmark for assessing progress toward the goals of the Paris climate agreement.On Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged world leaders attending COP31 in Antalya to take climate change seriously, accelerate commitments to cut emissions and advance the transition away from fossil fuels.
T.S /R.K
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