There have been times this season when the Denver Nuggets look like the best version of themselves, a team that can score at will and also tries defensively. That version of the team is very formidable.
There have also been times this season when the Nuggets have gone into a malaise of sorts, allowing easy shots and offensive rebounds while settling for subpar possessions themselves offensively. That version of the team is very, very beatable from night to night.
Which version is who the Nuggets actually are? Well, they’re both, and those scenarios likely average out to somewhere in the middle.
The Nuggets are currently 5-4. They’ve defeated every team that has a worse record than them and haven’t lost a single one of those matchups: a perfect 5-0.
Unfortunately, the opposite is true of teams with a better record than them too. The Nuggets are 0-4 against teams with a better record to start the season.
It’s such a small sample size, and these teams are going to fluctuate throughout the year in the standings. Right now though, it tells the story of the Nuggets playing mostly like an average to good team, rather than the great version they’re trying to be.
Jamal Murray has been great for the vast majority of the year. Nikola Jokic has earned the right to start the season a bit slower than expected and is still putting up incredible numbers and better than expected defense.
Night to night though, figuring out which players are going strong with Denver’s star tandem is an adventure in itself. Christian Braun had some good moments but is back under 35% from three after some poor shooting performances and hasn’t added other dynamics to the offense. Cam Johnson is shooting 40% from three but on low volume and averaging merely 10.0 points per game despite being Denver’s important spacer.
Then, there’s Aaron Gordon, whose numbers to start the year have many Nuggets fans concerned. Gordon is averaging 11.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while shooting just 39.5% from the field and 27.8% from three. On top of that, Gordon’s impact on the year just hasn’t been felt consistently yet, something his presence always offered last year during an injury-riddled campaign.
Don’t even get me started on the bench. The Nuggets are receiving Jekyll and Hyde performances from the ensemble on a nightly basis. In Denver’s loss against the Houston Rockets last night, the entire group combined for 22 points on 20 shots while making zero three-pointers.
DeMar DeRozan was billed to be the sixth man off Denver’s bench, but the Nuggets are averaging a -4.5 plus-minus in DeRozan’s minutes, who has yet to find his place in Denver’s overall ecosystem.
It’s only nine games, but a 5-4 record, a 17th ranked Net Rating at +0.1 points per 100 possessions, and the oscillation between good and bad paint a relatively clear picture on who the Nuggets have been so far: average.
That’s not to say that they can’t be more than average in the final 73 games of the year. In reality, they will still probably finish with about 50 wins. Denver will play better as other teams play worse.
But the larger question remains if there’s another level to go beyond that. For a long time, the Nuggets have held onto a championship standard, expecting to compete for titles every single year because they have the best player in the world on their roster. Even if Nikola Jokic is only the fifth best player in the world when it’s all said and done, the Nuggets should still have similar aspirations…right?
Murray is playing at an incredible level to start the season and deserves credit for holding the crew together. It’s reasonable to expect Jokic to be at or around that level for the rest of the year after a slow start.
But the Nuggets are simply going to need more than that. The point of paying top dollar for their starting five was to have a top dollar starting five.
To this point, the Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Johnson, and Braun lineup has played 95 minutes and is +27 in raw plus-minus. That actually ranks 10th in the NBA, and a similar lineup with Trevon Brazile in place of Cam Johnson at small forward ranks fifth in the NBA: +31 in 40 minutes with strong production against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Remove those two lineups and their combined plus-minus, and the Nuggets are -51 in raw plus-minus in all other lineups this year. That’s notable. The Nuggets simply haven’t found enough consistency around their starters, and there’s only so far they can push their starters on Game 9 of the regular season.
It isn’t without effort or experimentation. Head coach David Adelman has staggered different starters, played a variety of combinations, and rarely tried the same lineup twice if it doesn’t work the first time. Perhaps that lack of rhythm is contributing to some of the issues, but the Nuggets are searching for stability, and they can’t wait around for players to ease into a lineup that makes sense.
Right now, the Nuggets are struggling to find a top-end level to match up with strong teams. When those teams are playing well, can the Nuggets both disrupt that team and also avoid being disrupted themselves? So far, the answer is no.
It’s still early in the year, and the Nuggets will likely figure things out. What that final product looks like and how good it actually is depends on Denver’s expected vets to find their stability. After that, it will depend on Denver finding enough consistent contributors to take some pressure off Denver’s starters, namely Murray and Jokic, every single night.
Can they do it? Sure. Will they do it? That’s still up for debate.
The Denver Nuggets might just be “good not great” this season Mile High Sports.
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