Right-hander Emilio Pagán recently turned down a $10MM player option with the Reds, thus becoming a free agent. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Pagán already has a busy market and would prefer to sign before the lockout, so perhaps he will have a deal in place in the next few weeks.
Pagán turns 36 in May but it’s not surprising that he has a robust market. His 2026 season was okay if you look at the whole thing but he finished on quite a heater. On the whole, he tossed 42 2/3 innings with a 3.38 earned run average. He posted a 6.43 ERA through 14 innings before a hamstring strain put him on the injured list in May. He came off the IL in June and shoved through the rest of the season with a 1.88 ERA in 28 2/3 innings. He struck out 30.4% of opponents and only gave out walks at a 4.5% clip, both excellent figures.
After that showing, Pagán left $10MM on the table in search of more. His earning power is limited by his age but beating that number should be doable. MLBTR predicted Pagán to secure a two-year, $20MM deal this winter.
It wouldn’t be a shock if Pagán’s next deal was with the Reds, as his last two deals were with Cincinnati. Going into the 2024 season, the Reds gave him a two-year, $16MM deal, with the second year being a player option. It was a bit of a surprising pairing, as Pagán’s main issue in his career has been the long ball and Great American Ball Park is fairly hitter-friendly in that regard.
The first season didn’t go especially well, as Pagán made a couple of trips to the IL due to arm-related injuries and had a 4.50 ERA in 38 innings. He bounced back in 2025, with a 2.88 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. He returned to free agency but the Reds brought him back on another two-year deal with the second year being a player option. This time, the guarantee was bumped slightly to $20MM. As mentioned, Pagán pitched well enough to turn down the 2027 option.
Manager Terry Francona would clearly be pleased if a Pagán reunion could be worked out. “I’m not giving up on him coming back,” Francona said. “He has a right to test the market. But I don’t think it’s any secret how much I’ve enjoyed him, how much I respect him, how much I love him.”
The Reds and Pagán clearly like each other but a return to Cincinnati shouldn’t be considered a lock. Pagán’s numbers will surely get him interest from other clubs. The Reds, meanwhile, have needs beyond the bullpen. The rotation has Chase Burns up top but the rest of the group looks to be light with Hunter Greene likely to miss all of 2027 because of Tommy John surgery. The lineup has two really strong guys in Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart but the rest of the group is questionable.
MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker projects the Reds to spend about $89MM on next year’s club. That’s roughly $30MM shy of the $129MM they spent on the 2026 team. As Wittenmyer notes, the Reds already had $10MM budgeted for Pagán before knowing his decision on his contract. They could circle back to him on a deal with a similar salary and end up even. But they could also redirect some of that freed-up cash to other areas of the roster.
The bullpen certainly looks better with Pagán in it. At the moment, Tejay Antone and Graham Ashcraft are the only two somewhat established arms in the projected relief group. Antone just had a good season in 2026 but he hardly pitched from 2022 to 2025 due to a number of arm injuries and he turns 33 in December. Ashcraft is younger but a sprain of his UCL put him on the shelf for several months this year. He came off the IL before the season was done but walked 15.9% of the batters he faced in the innings he pitched around that IL stint. Upgrading the relief group should be on the agenda for the Reds this winter but they will have to decide which areas are top priorities with so many spots needing upgrades.
The current collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association expires at 11:59 pm Eastern on December 1. The two sides are negotiating a new deal but don’t appear close to getting anything done, as the league continues to push for a salary cap and floor system, a framework the players oppose. It is widely expected that no deal will be reached by December 2 and the league will lock out the players at that time. That lockout will include a transactions freeze, leaving any unsigned free agents to wait for a new CBA before they can sign.
Some players might prefer to sign before that frosty winter arrives. Since Pagán appears to be one of them, it should be known in the next few weeks if he will return to Cincinnati or pitch somewhere else on his next deal.
Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images
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