Vladimir Putin may take pleasure in looking at damaging election results in other countries – happiness that he doesn’t have to suffer the same constraints that others in power do. But the scale of the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections this week may end up giving him something he hates: chaos that he didn’t start, and doesn’t control.
There is a chance that the Russian leader now sees the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s time as US President as a vanishing chance to end the war in Ukraine on terms he can portray as victory: the kind of terms – including Ukraine ceding territory Russia claims but doesn’t hold – that Trump has previously suggested Kyiv should accept.
Official reactions from Moscow since the US midterms have been thinly disguised flattery for the US President. “We are sincerely counting on the fact that he will continue his peace-making efforts,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Of course they are. Trump’s most recent “peace-making efforts” have shown a distinct sympathy for Putin’s own points of view.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, also took a swipe at Trump’s victorious opponents. “The Democratic Party leadership’s approach to relations with Russia is sharply negative. There is nothing new about that.”
But now comes the real test. Russia will be wondering how Putin-friendly Trump can be with a Congress determined to rein him in. Trump will be looking increasingly at his historical legacy and will see “solving” Ukraine as a way to cement that. But Bloomberg has reported that the Kremlin has lost confidence in Trump’s ability to “push Ukraine to accept a peace deal on Russian terms”.
There will be clues of any possible moves towards peace in talks due to take place in Abu Dhabi next week. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s chosen negotiators, are continuing to work on a deal ahead of the worst months of winter, when the prospect of strikes on energy infrastructure will only make civilian suffering worse.
And Trump has a possible new member on his Ukraine team: Melania. The First Lady’s profile in the conflict has been boosted by her recent successful negotiation of a deal to let civilians leave the town of Oleshky in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
Melania Trump was involved in efforts to let civilians leave the town of Oleshky in Russian-occupied Ukraine last month (Photo: Michael M Santiago/Getty)Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has honoured Melania with the Order of Princess Olga, first class, in recognition of her humanitarian work. The award, one of Ukraine’s highest, is also a diplomatic move designed to improve Kyiv’s relationship with the White House in the wake of Zelensky’s visible fury over Trump’s decision to import Russian diesel into the US.
Putin is probably worried that the time when he can hope for such gifts is starting to run short.
While it is true that Putin long ago removed the risk of his own actions being restricted by a Russian parliament, the Kremlin will now have to deal with a lame-duck US President heavily distracted by a hostile Congress.
While Ryabkov insisted that Russia’s “principled and consistent line regarding Ukraine – as well as our foreign policy in general – is not based on short-term considerations and, naturally, does not depend on the fluctuations of the political barometer in other countries”, it is easy to see that this isn’t the case.
What happened in the US this week has direct implications for Putin and his war.
If support for military aid to Ukraine was falling among some sections of the US electorate, it remains very strong – close to 70 per cent– among Democrats, according to an Economist/YouGov poll published last month. This means that those with the new power in Washington come January are backed by voters who have a firmer desire to prop up Ukraine’s war efforts.
Putin has tried to keep Trump on side during his presidency (Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)In contrast, support had fallen most sharply among Maga Republicans, whose power and influence is now much diminished after the midterms.
What Putin does now will show how confident he is in his own war aims, and Trump as a negotiating partner. It will also show how prepared Russia is for a post-Trump future.
For all its praise of the US President as a peacemaker, the Kremlin is also clever enough to know that there is no guarantee his successor – even a Republican – will be so tolerant of Putin’s refusal to settle for anything less than the conquest he sought when he escalated his attack on Ukraine almost five years ago.
That knowledge may lead to yet more attacks and escalations in the coming months, as Russia looks to speed up the timeline of its war and any deal. Ukrainians will certainly fear the worst.
At the same time, when Putin pauses to plot the next stage of his plans, he may – given his paranoia about staying in power – also be freshly reminded of how quickly wars can weaken or bring down a country’s leader, if the public mood truly goes against them.
Trump’s midterm hammering is a moment when Putin will feel both more powerful and also much weaker. How it affects his war will probably become clear in the coming period.
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