The White Sox surprised the league by winning 84 games this year and earning a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. They ultimately fell to the Guardians in a five-game Division Series, but they’ll be looking to win the division next year on the back of a strong position player group. One member of that group is shortstop Colson Montgomery. Putting it simply, he had a polarizing season in 2026.
The 24-year-old Montgomery played in 153 games and took 638 trips to the plate. Among the positives, he led American League shortstops with 31 home runs, 87 runs batted in, and a .206 isolated slugging percentage. The power was clearly present, and it was a key reason for Montgomery being an everyday player despite only posting a 91 wRC+. His glovework also helped out significantly. Montgomery was worth +10 Outs Above Average at shortstop and ranked in the 94th percentile by Fielding Run Value, according to Statcast.
Altogether, Montgomery was worth 2.8 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. That landed in the middle of the pack for qualified shortstops, and on the surface, it makes him a quality regular. However, Montgomery achieved that value while struggling badly to make contact. He batted .197/.282/.403 overall and struck out at a staggering 35.6% rate. The latter was the highest in the league not just among shortstops, but qualified players at any position. Montgomery’s teammate Munetaka Murakami came in second with a 35.4% strikeout rate.
Both Montgomery and Murakami are power hitters. However, Murakami made up for the swing and miss in his game by walking 16.6% of the time, boosting his on-base percentage to .347 despite a .207 batting average. The result was a 129 wRC+. In contrast, Montgomery’s 8.5% walk rate was much closer to league average, and he got on base less than 30% of the time, so he was a below-average hitter despite the 31 homers.
It makes for an interesting comparison to Montgomery’s impressive half-season debut in 2025. Over 284 plate appearances, the rookie batted .239/.311/.529 with a 130 wRC+. He walked at a similar rate to this year, and crucially, he struck out 6.4% less often. A 29.2% strikeout rate is still far worse than average, but it was manageable since Montgomery was making more frequent contact. When you factor in his 21 home runs and sharp defense (+7 Defensive Runs Saved and +6 OAA at shortstop), he was worth 2.7 fWAR in less than half the games he played in 2026.
One could argue that Montgomery’s 35.6% strikeout rate this year was still manageable given the 31 home runs and 2.8 fWAR. Nonetheless, his hitting profile is extremely risky since it relies so much on power. Should Montgomery suffer an injury or simply regress in the power department, his offensive output could go from merely below-average to unplayable thanks to the strikeouts. Even with plus defense, that would make him more of a 1.0-1.5 fWAR role player than a solid regular.
Obviously, cutting back on the strikeouts will require Montgomery to make better swing decisions. His chase rate increased slightly from 30.5% to 32.4%, which sits in the 32nd percentile according to Statcast. He made contact 6.8% less often on those pitches. Montgomery’s chase-swing rate (FanGraphs’ version of the stat) also went up sharply from 19.8% to 28.4% in 2026. He even swung at “waste” pitches 9.2% of the time, compared to 3.8% last year. In short, pitchers were adjusting by throwing in the zone less often, and Montgomery helped them by going after bad pitches.
He’ll also need to do better against four-seam fastballs. Montgomery was worth +2 Run Value against the pitch last year, but that fell all the way to a -13 Run Value in his sophomore campaign. He batted just .154 against four-seamers, the second-worst of pitches he saw at least 5% of the time. Montgomery also experienced an 11.2% uptick in strikeout rate, an 8.7% drop in hard-hit rate, and a 200-point decline in slugging percentage against four-seamers. It’s Montgomery’s most-often seen pitch by over 20%, so if he hopes to get back above average at the plate, he needs to find a way to handle the heat.
As things currently stand, Montgomery seems like a Joey Gallo type of player, albeit one who walks less frequently and is a better defender at his position. The White Sox and Montgomery probably want to avoid Gallo’s career trajectory, and a return to Montgomery’s 2025 levels will be a step in the right direction. For what it’s worth, the team has a few years before the strikeouts become too expensive to handle. Montgomery doesn’t reach arbitration until 2029. He likely won’t cost more than $5MM until the 2030 season at the earliest.
One theoretical possibility is a trade of Montgomery for starting pitching, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote in our Offseason Outlook series. The White Sox will have Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and Anthony Kay on hand for the rotation. They attempted to bolster the group by acquiring Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, but he struggled badly in 31 innings. Castillo remains under contract for 2027, but the Sox still need more pitching if they hope to make a deeper postseason run.
Meanwhile, Chicago has this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick Roch Cholowsky as their eventual shortstop of the future. He could be up in late 2027. That might give Montgomery most of the season as a starter, but he’s eventually going to surrender the position to Cholowsky, who’s seen as an excellent fielder. However long his run with the White Sox lasts, Montgomery will need to make some adjustments in order to capitalize on his power and remain a productive everyday player.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
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