Three teams enter Week 7 of the NFL season unbeaten, but who can keep their winning streak going the longest, and what does that say about their future playoff success?
Every season, the members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins pop open bottles of fine champagne once every team in the NFL has lost at least one game, preserving their status as the only undefeated team in the Super Bowl era.
As the decades have passed, it has felt decreasingly likely that a team could produce another flawless campaign.
In 1972, the Dolphins only played 14 regular-season games, and the expansion of the schedule in recent years has contributed to more variance than when Bob Griese and Co. set the bar for NFL excellence.
Some teams have come close to matching the feat, with the 2007 New England Patriots infamously losing in the Super Bowl after a 16-0 regular season.
This season, three teams enter Week 7 undefeated.
The Minnesota Vikings entered the season with serious questions at quarterback, and those questions remain largely unanswered despite the team’s 5-0 start. It has been aggressive defense—coordinated by Brian Flores—that has led the Vikings to their undefeated start.
The Kansas City Chiefs are no strangers to winning, but last season’s 6-11 disaster led the team to make a change. With the acquisition of Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs have become one of the league’s best rushing teams on their way to 5-0.
The San Francisco 49ers are the league’s only 6-0 team, powered by MVP candidate Brock Purdy and one of the NFL’s best offenses. Even better news is that the 49ers have already banked three wins against division opponents in the highly competitive NFC West.
All three teams took different roads on their fast starts, but who can go the longest without dropping a game, and how do their hot starts bode for their postseason fortunes?
The Opta supercomputer simulations showed the 49ers as having the best chance to stay undefeated the longest.
Historically, being the last undefeated team has indicated mixed results by the end of the season. From 1973 to 1999, the last undefeated team went on to win the Super Bowl nine times.
However, only once in the last 26 seasons has the final unbeaten team gone on to win the Super Bowl (2006 Indianapolis Colts).
Being the final undefeated team does seem to point toward some playoff success, though, with six Super Bowl participants in the last 11 years being the “last team standing” in the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers: 38.9% chance to be final unbeaten team
The stories about the 49ers before the season mostly dealt with off-the-field issues, from the arrest of owner Jed York, a car crash that left head coach Kyle Shanahan with serious injuries, and even conspiracy theories that an electrical substation near the team’s practice facility was contributing to soft-tissue injuries.
Since the season kicked off, however, it’s been all business for the Niners.
The 49ers’ offense has been humming, with a league-leading 51.5% successful play rate. The passing offense has been particularly lethal, with an NFL-best 53.1% successful play rate on passing plays and an explosive play rate on passes of 11.3%, which ranks third.
The rushing game has been effective at moving the sticks, but no San Francisco running back has a rush over 16 yards this season.
The 49ers’ defense has excelled at limiting big plays this season. They are one of two teams through Week 6 that has yet to give up a rush of 20 or more yards, and their 13 completions allowed of 20 or more yards rank in the top 10.
One reason why our model thinks the 49ers might outlast the Vikings and Chiefs is their schedule.
San Francisco has a winnable game against the Atlanta Falcons this week, followed by a bye in Week 8, so there obviously can be no loss that week.
The 49ers then get the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys before a Sunday Night Football showdown against the Vikings. Could that be a battle of unbeaten teams?
Minnesota Vikings: 23.6% chance to be final unbeaten team
This season has already thrown some serious adversity at the Vikings, but they’ve overcome their challenges each week.
Kyler Murray’s Vikings debut was short-lived after he suffered a concussion in the season opener, immediately changing the offensive gameplan. Star receiver Justin Jefferson also missed a game due to an ankle injury.
Because of injuries and trying to integrate a new style of quarterback into coach Kevin O’Connell’s system, the Vikings offense has just a 33.9% successful play rate, ranking 31st in the league.
However, the performance of Minnesota’s offense has been rendered nearly irrelevant by how good the defense has played.
Not only do the Vikings rank first in successful play rate allowed at 29.9%, but they also rank first individually against the run (26.7%) and against the pass (31.7%).
The Vikings blitz on 75.0% of their defensive snaps this season, easily leading the NFL and more than double the league average of 36.2%.
Minnesota has eight players who have recorded at least a partial sack this season, but Dallas Turner has blossomed into a star.
The 17th overall draft pick in 2024, Turner had eight sacks last season and is the team leader this season with 5.5 sacks. His 30 pressures rank seventh in the NFL among edge defenders.
This week, the Vikings face an Indianapolis Colts team that just fired its general manager, but the schedule will get more challenging after that.
The Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers boast three of the best offenses in the NFL, providing viewers with tantalizing strength-versus-strength matchups on the Vikings’ schedule.
If they get through those games unscathed, the 49ers will be waiting in Week 11.
Kansas City Chiefs: 16.6% chance to be final unbeaten team
The Chiefs are no strangers to fast starts, opening six of the last 10 seasons with at least a four-game winning streak, but this year’s run feels significant after last season’s 2-3 start set the tone for a letdown of a season.
Patrick Mahomes appears to have completely healed from the torn ligaments in his left knee, and the Chiefs’ defense is playing well, but it is Kansas City’s running game that has completely transformed their team.
Kenneth Walker III signed with the Chiefs shortly after winning Super Bowl MVP honors with the Seattle Seahawks, and it has not been surprising to see Kansas City’s rushing attack improve. However, it has been astonishing to see just how much of a difference Walker has made.
The Chiefs went from 106.6 rushing yards per game last season to 159.8 this season. That 53.2 yards-per-game increase is easily the biggest in the league this year.
Walker has received good blocking this season, but he is also forcing 0.433 missed or broken tackles per offensive touch, easily the best among running backs this season and more than double the NFL average.
The biggest obstacle to the Chiefs being the last unbeaten team could come this Sunday night when Walker faces his old team as Kansas City visits Seattle. The Seahawks’ defense isn’t quite as formidable as last year’s, but they are still only allowing 3.3 yards per designed rushing play.
If the Chiefs win on Sunday, they could have a chance to extend their streak well into the season. The rival Denver Broncos are no pushover, but their underperforming offense has been a topic of discussion in recent weeks.
After that, Kansas City should be solid favorites against the New York Jets, Falcons and Arizona Cardinals.
Starting on Thanksgiving Day, however, the Chiefs begin a brutal stretch against the Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and the 49ers.
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Who Will Be the Last Undefeated Team Standing in the NFL This Season? Opta Analyst.
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